While the PDP gives its plethora of reasons and levies allegations on the incumbent governor, it also unwittingly shot itself on the legs
Gbolahan Balogun
It is unclear whether opinion polls hold any salt on the psyche of a Nigerian or whether it persuades him on where and how to cast his vote. If it were so, the outcomes of the multi-state-wide opinion poll conducted by NOI Polls Limited, at the behest of ANAP Foundation ahead of the forthcoming 2023 governorship elections and, as it relates to Kwara State has put paid to a general belief. It has pitched the ruling All Progressives Party and the main opposition, the Peoples Democratic Party against each other in such a way that both parties have offered feedbacks on how their campaigns were going --how APC is convincing Kwarans it deserves reelection and the PDP that it is still the best choice, even if it was recently rejected by Kwarans.
But the responses of both parties to the poll have also in a way, hit the soft underbellies of their performances and reckonings in the eyes of Kwara electorates.
In the real sense of it, opinion polls help politicians understand what the public wants, and the public understands who is popular at the polls. In the lead-up to an election, political pundits and interested members of the public will refer to opinion polls to see how results might land. In sane societies, even if they don’t work every time, they are viewed as reliable guides to election results.
The summary of the projection of the ANAP/ NOI survey, for which the Kwara APC celebrated reads: “Ahead of the forthcoming 2023 governorship elections, a recent statewide opinion poll commissioned by ANAP Foundation and conducted by NOIPolls Limited was concluded in October 2022. The Poll confirm a dominant lead by Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq of the All Progressives Congress (APC), with Alhaji Shuaibu Yaman Abdullahi of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Mr. Hakeem Oladimeji Lawal of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) both trailing behind respectively.
“The results showed a significant lead for Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq with 30% of voters proposing to vote for him if the governorship election were to be conducted today; and 11% proposing to vote for Alhaji Shuaibu Yaman Abdullahi (PDP) who fell in second place. Mr. Hakeem Oladimeji Lawal (SDP) was a distant third with only 3% of voters proposing to vote for him.
“Governor AbdulRahman’s 19%-point lead at this early stage is very significant and separates him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 30%, 11% and 3%.
“Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 31% and 19% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 36% of women are undecided versus 26% of male voters”
Although the APC described the ANAP/ NOI Polls result “a confirmation of Gov. AbdulRazaq as preferred Kwara choice for 2023 governorship election”, the outcome also calls to question the governor’s popularity rating and also shows how much the influence of the party has waned, considering the overwhelming majority it enjoyed at the last elections. If it were taken that the pollster, NOI Polls Limited, Okonjo-Iweala’s company that has partnered with the Gallup Organization since 2007 on opinion polling and research, it is expected that the polling would both be transparent and accurate in their statistical methodologies.
What would likely bother Kwarans is the rate of “Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate, which add up to a whopping 31% and 19% respectively” and the “the gender split of undecided voters that shows that 36% of women are undecided versus 26% of male voters”. This would, in a way describe how much the spirit of Otoge has dwindled since Governor AbdulRahman AndulRazaq hold sway as the face of the liberation struggle that Otoge symbolises.
It is also the aspect that the PDP has taken to the market. Reacting in a statement titled “Kwara APC Party Regime and their Procured Election Polls Results”, the party said it views the “purported” survey with “amusement", wondering "how the popularity of an incumbent governor could have waned so much from 65% at the beginning of the regime in 2019 to the miserable numbers we see today in just over three years. How could such law of diminishing returns affect a sitting governor’s phantom "silence Achievements"?
Despite the fact that the PDP felt the "polls were procured and generated, in the face of the upcoming 2023 general elections, to make the Kwara APC regime look great on paper", it nevertheless offered explanations and gave its perceived reasons, why the stars of its rival have waned in the people's reckoning.
"Why is the above a surprise? How could a government rake in revenue of close to half a TRILLION NAIRA in just over three and a half years without any commissioned or completed projects?
"How could a regime borrow over fifty-one billion naira (N51B) on behalf of Kwarans, without any real description of what they intend do with the funds and then leave seventeen billion (N17B) in an undisclosed bank account, in less than four years in power?
"How can a regime have so many accusations of alleged graft and corruption and hope to remain popular?
"In close to four years in power the APC party regime led by Mal Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq has refused to conduct local government elections. The governor continues to be the sole administrator of 16 local government councils. The governor also went against a subsisting Supreme Court judgement, by imposing Transition Implementation committees (TIC) on Kwara state local government area councils.
"Do we dare ask about the vanished transformer contractor, who took off with one hundred and thirty-eight million Naira (N138m) of Kwara state funds? Maybe we should ask about the vanished six billion naira (N6B) brought to light through the query of the former Auditor General, which led to his unceremonious sack?
"We still remember the over six hundred, phantom renovated schools which cost Kwara state 14 billion naira, which Kwarans don't know the list, location and Bill of Quantities (BOQ's), till today.
"What about the alleged padded renovation of selected secondary schools where a single school was renovated with over three hundred million naira (N300M). Kwarans wondered how much it would cost to build a new school from the scratch
While the PDP gives its plethora of reasons and levies allegations on the incumbent governor, it also unwittingly shot itself on the legs when it raised the issue of a case the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) once described as "theft" by a former PDP governor in the state.
"We also remember the 5.2 billion naira that was forcefully taken from the Dr. Abdulfatah Ahmed government, while they were still in power by the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) zonal head Mr. Sharu and handed over to the APC regime, led by Mal Abdulrahman Abdulrazaq in May 2019." It said in the statement, not minding the sores it exposed.
Expectedly, the All Progressive Congress swiftly deplored its verbal artillery, noting "the belly-aching" position of the opposition parties following the results. Mr Tajudeen Folaranmi Aro, the state Publicity Secretary in a statement said the result of the polls was a confirmation of the hard work of Governor Mallam Abdulrahman AbdulRazaq in the last three and half years. The party said it was convinced “the 99 per cent of those labelled as undecided voters are those who will vote for Governor AbdulRazaq in the 2023 Governorship Election”
His niceties on the party's explanation ends at that. Aro fired on all cylinders, lampooning the stance of the PDP on the opinion poll: “We sympathize with the opposition parties especially the Peoples Democratic Party who have been dazed by the outcome of the polls. This is a party whose leaders should bury their heads in shame because the only legacy they have in the state is that of pilferage, outright stealing of public funds and impunity.
“The PDP, lately, has been working very hard to deceive the public that it has turned a new leaf following its removal from power in 2019 but we know that a leopard will never change its skin. PDP leaders are certified kleptomaniacs of public funds.
“We are also amused by the PDP's perpetual headache about the commissioning of projects by our administration when the projects are visible and acknowledged by the people themselves.
“Unlike the PDP propaganda of commissioning and publicizing fake and non- existing projects on radio, we are excited and impressed by the compliments and feedback from stakeholders and people of Kwara and their common consensus of commendation to Governor AbdulRazaq on the projects in the 16 local governments and 193 wards in the state."&The PDP has also been spreading falsehoods about the loan obtained by the administration. We challenge the PDP to explain how the state is indebted to the tune of N51 Billion.
"It is ridiculous for the PDP to demand that the whole 27.5 Billion Naira bond obtained for the building of infrastructure be paid in advance to contractors handling various projects in the State. The AbdulRazaq administration will not toe the PDP path of dishonour which was its trademark when loans and counterpart funds were shared by leaders of the rejected party.
The spokesperson said the PDP falsehoods against the administration were being published on blogs and their Whatsapp groups, challenging it "to publish the false graft claims against the Government in credible newspapers and electronic media and see whether they would not face criminal defamation and excruciating damages" Readers would ask if the party is not aware that there are insignia to stories and addresses to blogs and Whatsapp groups.
There is no doubt that the science of polling is sound. It is based on solid statistical grounds and theories. But experiences from across the world have also proven that public opinion polling has several conundrums that may befall its execution. What happens if pollsters ask questions to the wrong group of people? In this case Kwarans could ask "And whom did they interview?" Again, and most importantly, since much of the projections depend on the judgments of pollsters, on their choices of the models and methodologies there is enough room to question the study designs, possible selection biases, and randomness, and of course the methodologies of the survey.
When the Kwara PDP said the poll was "procured" its doubt was probably wrapped up in the mistrust of the organisation that paid for the polls.
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